Better to act now, else to feel sorry later – Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO, COVID-19 Tech Lead on Omicron and its circulation worldwide.

The newly circulating COVID-19 variant –‘Omicron’ is clamping up the chart at an aggressive rate just in few days or a couple of weeks. Having detected initially in South Africa and Botswana, it has spread to a wider extent across the globe, infecting larger people and the numbers are multiplying quickly without showing mercy to any of the groups out there- seniors or juniors. As per the current data available on WHO’s site, Omicron is taking over Delta in many parts of the world and its statistics are changing each day. Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, COVID-19 Technical lead, WHO Health Emergencies Programme has tried to explain the behaviour and patterns of this newly detected mutant worldwide.

What do we know about Omicron as the new COVID variant?

"Omicron is the latest variant of concern that WHO is tracking, has been detected around the world. It is efficiently transmitting. And in fact everywhere where we have good sequencing, this variant is being detected, so it is circulating globally at the present time. It first emerged and was first reported, in fact, in South Africa and Botswana. And in those countries, Delta was circulating on a low level, so Omicron took over quite quickly in terms of circulation to become the dominant variant circulating. In other parts of the world, Delta was circulating intensively. And so as Omicron was introduced into those populations, what we're seeing is co-circulation of both Delta and Omicron. Now, in some countries that have had a few weeks of circulation of Omicron, is taking over. It's replacing Delta. But in other countries that hasn't taken place yet, what we are seeing is a very sharp increase in case numbers. You may have noticed in the latest WHO update that almost 10 million cases were reported in the last seven days. And that's the highest number of cases we've seen to date. In the last 24 hours, there have been almost two and a half million cases or more than two and a half million cases."

How is this variant behaving as per the current data? 

"So, there are several reasons why we're seeing such a sharp increase in case numbers. First is its emergence and circulation, which transmits very efficiently between the masses. There are a number of reasons for this- mutation is the first reason that it does in the host. The virus is able to adhere to human cells more easily. It has mutations that allow it to do that. Secondly we have what is called immune escape. And this means that people can be reinfected either from if they had a previous infection or if they've been vaccinated. Now you have to remember, vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing severe disease and death, but they don't prevent all infections and they don't prevent all onward transmission. So it is still absolutely critical to get vaccinated because it will save your life, but it doesn't prevent all infections or transmission. The other reason is that we are seeing replication of Omicron in the upper respiratory tract, and that's different from Delta and other variants, including the ancestral strain which replicated in the lower respiratory tract, in the lungs. And so this combination of factors allowed the virus to spread more easily. But what is also important to remember is that this is in the context of people mixing more, people coming into contact with others more, people not adhering to public health and social measures like distancing, wearing of a well-fitting mask, avoiding crowds, spending time more outdoors than indoors and in the northern hemisphere, where it's getting colder and we're in the winter months now, people spend more time indoors and particularly in crowds. All of those factors allow viruses to spread, whether it's Omicron or something else."

What is its severity profile among different age groups, people who are vaccinated and who aren’t?

With regards to the severity of Omicron, we're learning more about this every day. What we understand from a number of countries and the studies that are coming from a number of countries is that your risk of developing severe disease or needing hospitalization from Omicron is less compared to Delta. That doesn't mean that it's a mild disease. It does mean, though, that if you are infected that your chances of needing hospitalisation are less. What we do know also from a number of countries, is that your risk of developing severe disease increases with age, and that's the same as with Delta. It also increases if you have underlying conditions. And of course, it's increased if you're not vaccinated. So this is why it is so critical that when it is your turn that you get vaccinated, you receive the full dose because vaccination is saving lives. Vaccination is preventing people from developing severe disease as well as going on to dying. And that's true for Delta as well as for Omicron. It's really important that our health care systems do not get overburdened. I mean, we're in the third year of this pandemic and health systems are really stretched. Our health workers are incredibly stretched. Many of them are getting infected right now from being in the community, as well as being in the health care facility itself. And this has an impact on the care of patients, not only for COVID patients, but also for other diseases and other emergencies."

How can we keep ourselves protected with least burden on hospitals and healthcare professionals?

"As the virus circulates into the third year of this pandemic, we will see more. So it is very unlikely that Omicron will be the last variant you'll hear us speaking about. This is why, it is so critical that we focus on getting vulnerable populations around the world vaccinated and that we increase vaccination coverage in all countries, not just in some. So, please get vaccinated when it's your turn and really fight for vaccine equity and demand that from the leaders where you live, that we need people to have access to lifesaving tools like vaccines. At the same time, we have to continue to drive transmission down. We cannot only focus on vaccinations, its vaccines and, not vaccines only. So everyone needs to play their part in reducing the opportunity to get infected and to spread this virus. And there are a number of things that we can do - Distancing, masking, improving ventilation, avoiding crowds, keeping your hands clean etc. All of those layers of interventions keep you and your loved ones safe."

Is the mutant lethal or less infectious? 

"The general public out there, what you need to worry about is just reducing your exposure to the virus that's circulating where you live, if it's Omicron or if it's Delta. We want people to understand and feel empowered that they have some control over infection. We have heard some people suggest that Omicron is just mild. That's not the case. There is evidence that Omicron is causing less severe disease, but it doesn't mean that Omicron is mild and Omicron is not the common cold. So please take measures to keep yourself from getting infected. One last point to mention is the risk of developing post-COVID-19 condition or long COVID. We do know that that a proportion of people who are infected with this virus can go on to develop long term impacts, which are called long COVID or post-COVID 19 conditions. And so that's reason enough to try to prevent you from getting infected for that. But don't forget about this because we want to make sure that we keep you safe from infection, developing severe diseases, passing the virus to somebody else, but also to prevent from developing long COVID."

What shall be done to end this pandemic worldwide?

"I know this can be incredibly frustrating as we enter the third year of this pandemic and everyone is exhausted. I am too, frustrated. But what we need to do is to stay strong, stick together and stay vigilant because if we work together, if we fight for vaccine equity, if we adhere to these measures together, we could have a much better chance of overcoming this virus together and we will. All pandemics end. This pandemic will end. We really do need to stay strong. We need to stick together. I would also emphasise to really be kind to one another because this is wearing thin on our patience and how exhausted all of us actually are. But please remain vigilant."

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